Bitcoin Expected to Continue Gaining Ground at Gold’s Expense, Driven by Corporate Adoption and State-Level Support
JPMorgan analysts have reported that Bitcoin is likely to continue gaining ground at gold’s expense in the second half of 2025, according to multiple sources. The forecast, led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, suggests crypto-specific catalysts will create more upside for Bitcoin compared to gold as the year progresses.
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According to the analysts, what was once called the ‘debasement trade’—where investors turn to gold and bitcoin to guard against weakening fiat currencies—has now transformed into a zero-sum contest, with bitcoin gaining the upper hand.
“Between mid-February and mid-April gold was rising at the expense of bitcoin, while of the past three weeks we have been observing the opposite, i.e. bitcoin rising at the expense of gold,” said JPMorgan analysts. “In all, we expect the YTD zero sum game between gold and bitcoin to extend to the remainder of the year, but are biased towards crypto-specific catalysts creating more upside for bitcoin over gold into the second half of the year.”
Recent Performance Trends
The shift in market dynamics is already apparent in recent performance metrics. Since April 22, gold has dropped nearly 8%, while bitcoin has surged 18% over the same period. This trend is also visible in investor flows, with capital moving out of gold ETFs and into bitcoin. Futures data reflects similar movements, with gold positions decreasing while bitcoin positions increase.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $104,000, sitting just 5% below its all-time high reached in January 2025, when it climbed to nearly $109,000. Meanwhile, gold is trading at approximately $3,230, down from its April all-time high of $3,500.
Also Read: Bitcoin Closely Correlates With Russell 2000 Tech Stocks, Says JPMorgan
Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Accelerating
JPMorgan attributes bitcoin’s momentum to several crypto-specific catalysts, with corporate treasury adoption leading the way. Companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Metaplanet are increasing their bitcoin holdings significantly. Strategy has ambitious plans to raise $84 billion for bitcoin purchases by 2027 and has already hit 32% of that target.
Metaplanet, sometimes referred to as “Japan’s MicroStrategy,” reported its strongest quarter to date for Q1 FY2025. The company’s bitcoin holdings rose to 6,796 BTC—a 3.9x increase year-to-date, with over 5,000 BTC added in 2025 alone. Despite a temporary ¥7.4 billion valuation loss from a bitcoin price dip in March, the company rebounded with ¥13.5 billion in unrealized gains as of May 12. Since adopting the Bitcoin Treasury Standard, Metaplanet’s BTC net asset value has surged 103.1x, and its market cap has grown 138.1x.
State-Level Support Growing
Another significant catalyst identified by JPMorgan is the increasing support for bitcoin at the state level in the United States. Several U.S. states are warming to bitcoin, with New Hampshire now permitting up to 5% of its reserves in bitcoin. Arizona is launching a Bitcoin reserve and has pledged not to raise taxes this year.
“As the list grows, with other U.S. states potentially considering adding bitcoin to their strategic reserves, this could turn out to be a more sustained positive catalyst for bitcoin,” wrote the analysts.
Maturing Derivatives Market
The crypto derivatives market is also maturing, which could encourage more institutional participation. U.S. exchanges have acquired major platforms—Coinbase has bought Deribit, Kraken has acquired NinjaTrader, and Gemini has obtained a license to offer derivatives across Europe.
JP Morgan noted that these developments show “that the crypto derivatives universe is maturing and by coming under US or EU regulations it could induce confidence and greater participation by traditional institutional investors.”
ETF Dominance
Bitcoin’s institutional momentum extends to ETFs as well. Last December, Bitcoin ETFs overtook their gold counterparts for net inflows, according to K33 Research. As of May, Bitcoin ETFs are continuing to outpace gold ETFs in new inflows.
Market Outlook
Despite bitcoin’s strong performance and positive outlook from JPMorgan, some analysts note that gold prices could still climb under certain conditions. Michael Petch, CEO of digital precious metals platform Argo, told Decrypt that gold prices may climb further if there are new developments in the ongoing tariff negotiations with China once the current 90-day pause ends.
Nevertheless, JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that bitcoin has more potential for upside in the coming months, as institutional adoption continues to grow and regulatory clarity improves. The shift from gold to bitcoin as a preferred hedge against fiat currency debasement could prove to be a lasting trend as we move into the second half of 2025.
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