As Bitcoin trades around $105,677, the crypto community remains divided on whether the flagship cryptocurrency can reach $150,000 by year-end. Recent technical patterns suggest the road ahead may be bumpier than many hope.
The Current State of Play
Bitcoin’s recent surge to a record high of $112,000 reignited optimism among bulls targeting $150,000 by the end of 2025. However, the swift correction below $105,000 has introduced significant doubt into this bullish narrative, with technical analysts warning of potential deeper corrections ahead.
The cryptocurrency currently sits at a critical juncture, with multiple technical indicators painting a mixed picture of what lies ahead for the world’s largest digital asset.
Warning Signs Flash Red
The Inverse Cup-and-Handle Pattern
One of the most concerning technical developments is the formation of an inverse cup-and-handle pattern on Bitcoin’s daily chart. This bearish reversal pattern has established its neckline near $100,800, which currently serves as key support.
Should Bitcoin break below this critical level, technical analysis suggests a potential drop toward $91,000 – a level that aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average. This scenario would effectively derail hopes of reaching $150,000 within the current timeframe.
The relative strength index (RSI) has declined alongside price action, indicating strong conviction behind the current sell-off. With the RSI reading at 52 as of recent trading, a break below the 50 level could intensify downside pressure significantly.
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Echoes of 2021: The Bearish Divergence
Perhaps most troubling for Bitcoin bulls is the emergence of a bearish divergence on the weekly chart that mirrors the pattern seen at the 2021 cycle top. This divergence occurs when the RSI trends lower despite price making higher highs – a classic warning sign of weakening momentum.
The 2021 divergence preceded a devastating 61% correction that sent Bitcoin tumbling toward its 200-week exponential moving average. If history repeats, Bitcoin could face a similar 52% decline from current levels, targeting approximately $64,000.
This historical precedent casts serious doubt on the widely discussed $150,000 target, especially if the current divergence confirms a broader market top similar to previous cycles.
Expert Warnings Mount
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has added his voice to the growing chorus of concern. In his analysis, Brandt identified a rising wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must reclaim its parabolic trendline to stay on track for a $125,000-$150,000 cycle top by August or September 2025.
Brandt’s analysis suggests that failure to reclaim this critical trendline could mark the end of the current bullish cycle, potentially triggering a typical 50-60% drawdown that has historically followed major tops.
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The Bull Case Persists
Despite mounting technical warnings, some analysts remain steadfast in their bullish outlook. Several factors continue to support the $150,000 target:
Gold Trajectory Comparison
Some traders draw parallels between Bitcoin’s current market structure and gold’s explosive breakout in the 2000s. They argue that Bitcoin could follow a similar historic trajectory, lending credence to the $150,000 scenario.
Bull Flag Formation
Analyst Tony Severino has identified what he believes to be a potential bull flag structure, which could propel Bitcoin toward the coveted $150,000 target if confirmed.
If this is a valid bull flag in Bitcoin (BTC CME) then the measured move is projected to reach above $150,000 pic.twitter.com/xt5X3ktmK7
— Tony “The Bull” Severino, CMT (@TonyTheBullCMT) June 6, 2025
On-Chain Indicators
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes the cryptocurrency is approaching a critical “start” rally zone based on historical cycle patterns. If the NUPL/MVRV ratio breaks and holds above 1.0, it could indicate the beginning of a new bullish impulse toward the $150,000-$175,000 range, similar to the rallies witnessed in 2017 and 2021.
The Path Forward
For Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum and keep the $150,000 target alive, several conditions must be met:
Immediate Requirements:
- Reclaim the 20-day EMA resistance around $105,000
- Hold above the inverse cup-and-handle neckline at $100,800
- Maintain RSI above the critical 50 level
Longer-term Necessities:
- Break above the recent $112,000 high with conviction
- Reclaim the parabolic trendline identified by Peter Brandt
- See the NUPL/MVRV ratio break above 1.0 and hold
Risk Management is Key
The current technical setup presents a challenging environment for Bitcoin investors. While the $150,000 target remains mathematically possible, the probability appears to be diminishing with each passing day that critical technical levels fail to hold.
Investors should be prepared for potential volatility in either direction, with particular attention paid to the $100,800 support level. A decisive break below this level could trigger a cascade of selling pressure toward the $91,000 region, while a strong bounce could reignite bullish momentum.
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Conclusion
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. The technical evidence suggests that the path to $150,000 is fraught with significant obstacles, particularly the bearish divergence pattern that mirrors the 2021 cycle top. However, the cryptocurrency’s history of defying expectations means that dismissing the bullish scenario entirely would be premature.
What’s clear is that the coming weeks will be critical in determining Bitcoin’s trajectory for the remainder of 2025. Investors would be wise to monitor the key technical levels closely and maintain appropriate risk management strategies regardless of their market outlook.
The dream of $150,000 Bitcoin remains alive, but it’s increasingly becoming a race against time and technical resistance that may prove insurmountable.
