Standard Chartered Bank is standing firm on its bold prediction that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028, pointing to recent SEC filings that show increasing indirect government exposure to the cryptocurrency through shares of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Standard Chartered says SEC 13F fillings support #Bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028 🚀 pic.twitter.com/MURg9bxLka
— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) May 20, 2025
Institutional Support Growing Through Indirect Exposure
In a recent note to clients, Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, highlighted that Q1 2025 13F filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) validate the bank’s long-standing Bitcoin price thesis despite a decline in direct Bitcoin ETF holdings during the quarter.
“The latest 13F data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supports our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers,” wrote Kendrick. “As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in BTC.“
Kendrick noted that while some entities like the State of Wisconsin Investment Board exited their entire Bitcoin ETF position (equivalent to about 3,400 BTC in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust), the more significant trend is government entities increasing their holdings of Strategy shares as an indirect method of gaining Bitcoin exposure.
“We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings,” Kendrick explained.
Government Entities Quietly Accumulating Bitcoin Exposure
The report highlights several sovereign and government-linked entities that have been quietly building Bitcoin positions through Strategy stock:
France and Saudi Arabia both took first-time positions in Strategy during Q1. Meanwhile, Norway’s Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea’s public funds each added exposure equivalent to approximately 700 BTC. U.S. retirement funds in states like California, New York, and North Carolina collectively added exposure equivalent to around 1,000 BTC through Strategy shares.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala took a different approach, increasing its direct Bitcoin exposure to roughly 5,000 BTC equivalent through BlackRock’s ETF.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) currently holds 576,230 BTC, valued at approximately $59 billion at current market prices, making its stock a popular proxy for institutional Bitcoin exposure.
Also Read: Big Banks Looking to Enter US Crypto Market: Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered Make Plans
Market Dynamics Shifting
The Standard Chartered analyst sees these developments as part of a broader shift in institutional thinking about Bitcoin.
According to Kendrick, “portfolios that once ignored BTC completely are slowly warming up to it. And as volatility drops and access improves, those underweight positions will likely increase.“
This isn’t Kendrick’s first bullish call. Last month, he admitted his prior $120K forecast for Q2 2025 was “too low,” citing surging inflows into U.S. spot BTC ETFs—totaling $5.3 billion over just three weeks. At that time, Kendrick revised his 2025 year-end target to $200,000.
The latest analysis from the bank suggests that Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios is evolving beyond tech volatility correlation and is increasingly being seen as a macro hedge. “It is now all about flows,” Kendrick stated. “And flows are coming in many forms.”
Bond Market Correlation
The increasing interest in Bitcoin may also be tied to declining confidence in traditional safe-haven assets.
According to a separate research note by KKR & Co. released around the same time, government bonds are no longer functioning effectively as protective assets during market downturns. “During risk-off days, government bonds are no longer fulfilling their role as the ‘shock-absorbers’ in a traditional portfolio,” wrote KKR’s head of global macro and asset allocation, Henry McVey.
As McVey noted, “CIOs and their boards are seeing their offensive assets such as stocks and defensive assets such as government bonds both decline in value at the same time that their local currency liabilities, which they traditionally have not hedged, increase in value too.” This dynamic could potentially benefit alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold as investors search for new safe havens.
Market Reaction
Bitcoin briefly surged above $107,000 on Tuesday following Standard Chartered’s reaffirmed forecast, approaching its all-time high of $108,786. The cryptocurrency has gained approximately 33% since its March low of $79,500.
For Bitcoin to reach Standard Chartered’s $500,000 target by 2028, the price would need to increase by roughly 380% from current levels in the next three years.
Long-Term View
Standard Chartered’s price target isn’t a short-term prediction but rather a long-range view based on continued institutional adoption. Whether or not the $500,000 figure is ultimately reached, the increasing participation of government entities in the Bitcoin ecosystem, even indirectly, represents a significant shift in how the asset is perceived by mainstream financial institutions.
As Kendrick noted in his client communication, “When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise.”
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